September 17, 2014  Posted by  Mark Broadie


A strokes gained look at winners in the 2013-14 PGA TOUR season: Winners gained 35 percent of their total strokes from putting

With the 2013-14 PGA TOUR season in the books, we look at some results from a strokes gained perspective. Rory McIlroy led the PGA Tour in total strokes gained, beating the field by 2.8 strokes per round. His driving and approach shots contributed 2.3 strokes per round, and he ranked first and eighth in these two categories. His short game and putting contributed the remaining 0.5 strokes per round. During his wins, McIlroy gained 4.1 strokes per round, or 1.3 strokes per round better than his average round. His putting improved 0.8 strokes per round compared to his season-long average during his wins.

Rory McIlroy leads the PGA TOUR in strokes gained outside of 100 yards (i.e., driving and approach shots combined). When he putts well, he often wins.

Strokes gained per round  
Total Drive Appr Short Putt
Rory McIlroy during season 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.4
Rory McIlroy during his wins 4.1 1.8 1.1 0.0 1.2
Difference in strokes gained 1.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.8

There are many ways to define the best players in the season: Leaders in FedExCup points, money, money per event, top tens, wins, stroke average, and others. I prefer to look at leaders in total strokes gained, which is a very similar measure to strokes average. These different methods lead to similar lists of players.

The top ten leaders total strokes gained for the 2013-14 season is headed by McIlroy and includes Garcia, Scott, Furyk, Rose, Kuchar, Day, Watson, Schwartzel and Walker. These golfers earned an average of $260,000 per event. They gained an average of 2.0 strokes per round on the field during the season, with 67 percent of the gain coming from driving and approach shots. They gained 19 percent from short game shots and 14 percent from putting. The best players tend to be the best at driving and approach shots. When these players putt well, they often win. Denis Pugh, coach of Francesco Molinari, said it succinctly in a recent tweet, “It’s the best putters out of the best ball strikers” who win.

Strokes gained per round  
Total Drive Appr Short Putt
Top 10 in total SG 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3
Fraction of total 100% 31% 36% 19% 14%
Winners during win 3.5 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.2
Fraction of total 100% 18% 29% 18% 35%

For the 2013-14 season, winners during their win gained an average of 3.5 strokes per round on the field, with a gain of 1.2 strokes per round, or 35 percent, from putting. The 35 percent average gain from putting is typical in many seasons, but putting contributes far more in some victories and far less in others. Strokes gained putting, as a fraction of total strokes gained, contributed the most in Jimmy Walker’s victory at the Frys.com (90 percent) and the least in Steven Bowditch’s victory at the Valero Texas Open (minus 18 percent). Only three out of 33 winners lost strokes to the field with their putting. Here are the top three and bottom three winners ranked by putting as a fraction of total strokes gained:

Strokes gained as a percent of total strokes gained (ranks in tournament in parentheses)
Winner Drive Appr Short Putt
Jimmy Walker (Frys.com) -3% (52) 4% (41) 9% (22) 90% (1)
Billy Horschel (BMW) 22% (9) 4% (31) -15% (51) 89% (1)
Ben Crane -17% (65) 34% (14) 16% (19) 67% (1)
Hideki Matsuyama 13% (23) 50% (5) 38% (5) -1% (46)
Brian Harman 19% (8) 70% (1) 16% (12) -5% (63)
Steven Bowditch 25% (3) 26% (17) 67% (1) -18% (64)

Short game shots (those shots starting inside of 100 yards, excluding putts), as a fraction of total strokes gained, contributed the most in Steven Bowditch’s victory at the Valero Texas Open (67 percent) and the least in Angel Cabrera’s victory at the Greenbrier Classic (minus 16 percent). Only four out of 33 winners lost strokes to the field with their short game. Here are the top three and bottom three winners ranked by strokes gained in the short game as a fraction of total strokes gained:

Strokes gained as a percent of total strokes gained (ranks in tournament in parentheses)
Winner Drive Appr Short Putt
Steven Bowditch 25% (3) 26% (17) 67% (1) -18% (64)
Hunter Mahan 22% (14) -1% (47) 47% (1) 32% (15)
Zach Johnson -17% (23) 74% (1) 42% (1) 2% (17)
Adam Scott 16% (19) 68% (3) -11% (56) 27% (26)
Billy Horschel (BMW) 22% (9) 4% (31) -15% (51) 89% (1)
Angel Cabrera 35% (2) 42% (3) -16% (71) 39% (6)

Approach shots (those shots starting outside of 100 yards, excluding tee shots on par-4 and par-5 holes), as a fraction of total strokes gained, contributed the most in Zach Johnson’s victory at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (74 percent) and the least in Brendon Todd’s victory at the HP Byron Nelson Championship (minus 14 percent). Only four out of 33 winners lost strokes to the field with their approach shots. Here are the top four and bottom three winners ranked by strokes gained in approach shots as a fraction of total strokes gained:

Strokes gained as a percent of total strokes gained (ranks in tournament in parentheses)
Winner Drive Appr Short Putt
Zach Johnson -17% (23) 74% (1) 42% (1) 2% (17)
Brian Harman 19% (8) 70% (1) 16% (12) -5% (63)
Adam Scott 16% (19) 68% (3) -11% (56) 27% (26)
Justin Rose 17% (20) 68% (1) 6% (39) 8% (38)
Matt Jones 29% (4) -1% (52) 11% (28) 61% (1)
J.B. Holmes 33% (2) -3% (55) 31% (5) 38% (4)
Brendon Todd 20% (13) -14% (60) 32% (4) 62% (1)

Drives (tee shots on par-4 and par-5 holes), as a fraction of total strokes gained, contributed the most in Rory McIlroy’s victory at the WGC-Bridgestone (53 percent) and the least in Zach Johnson’s victory at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (minus 17 percent). Only four out of 33 winners lost strokes to the field with their driving. Here are the top four and bottom three winners ranked by strokes gained driving as a fraction of total strokes gained:

Strokes gained as a percent of total strokes gained (ranks in tournament in parentheses)
Winner Drive Appr Short Putt
Rory McIlroy (WGC-Bridgestone) 53% (1) 20% (17) -6% (46) 33% (7)
Bubba Watson 44% (1) 29% (14) 5% (37) 22% (20)
Angel Cabrera 35% (2) 42% (3) -16% (71) 39% (6)
Rory McIlroy (PGA) 35% (2) 35% (5) 4% (44) 26% (12)
John Senden -12% (63) 40% (8) 41% (4) 31% (16)
Ben Crane -17% (65) 34% (14) 16% (19) 67% (1)
Zach Johnson -17% (23) 74% (1) 42% (1) 2% (17)

Here’s a strokes gained breakdown of all of the winners on the PGA TOUR in the 2013-14 season in tournaments with four rounds of ShotLink data:

Strokes gained per round (ranks in parentheses)
Winner Total Drive Appr Short Putt
Jimmy Walker (Frys.com) 3.4 (1) -0.1 (52) 0.1 (41) 0.3 (22) 3.1 (1)
Webb Simpson (Shriners) 4.5 (1) 0.3 (22) 1.3 (10) 0.4 (19) 2.4 (1)
Chris Kirk (The McGladrey) 3.6 (1) 0.2 (39) 0.8 (22) 1.2 (1) 1.4 (11)
Zach Johnson (Hyundai TOC) 2.3 (1) -0.4 (23) 1.7 (1) 1.0 (1) 0.0 (17)
Jimmy Walker (Sony Open) 3.4 (1) 1.1 (3) 0.8 (19) 0.1 (38) 1.4 (8)
Kevin Stadler (WM Phoenix) 3.7 (1) 0.6 (20) 1.7 (3) 0.9 (9) 0.5 (33)
Bubba Watson (Northern Trust) 3.8 (1) 1.7 (1) 1.1 (14) 0.2 (37) 0.8 (20)
Russell Henley (The Honda) 2.5 (3) 0.3 (27) 0.8 (19) 1.0 (4) 0.4 (31)
Patrick Reed (WGC-Cadillac) 2.9 (1) 0.5 (19) 0.4 (25) 0.9 (6) 1.1 (8)
John Senden (Valspar) 3.1 (1) -0.4 (63) 1.3 (8) 1.3 (4) 1.0 (16)
Matt Every (Arnold Palmer) 3.7 (1) 0.4 (21) 0.7 (20) 0.9 (12) 1.6 (3)
Steven Bowditch (Valero) 3.3 (1) 0.8 (3) 0.9 (17) 2.2 (1) -0.6 (64)
Matt Jones (Shell Houston) 4.1 (2) 1.2 (4) -0.1 (52) 0.4 (28) 2.5 (1)
Matt Kuchar (RBC Heritage) 3.6 (1) 0.5 (19) 1.2 (11) 0.8 (10) 1.2 (12)
Seung-Yul Noh (Zurich) 4.0 (1) 0.3 (27) 2.2 (1) 0.5 (23) 1.1 (11)
J.B. Holmes (Wells Fargo) 3.9 (1) 1.3 (2) -0.1 (55) 1.2 (5) 1.5 (4)
Martin Kaymer (THE PLAYERS) 3.4 (1) 0.4 (24) 1.5 (5) 0.7 (12) 0.7 (19)
Brendon Todd (HP Byron Nelson) 4.0 (1) 0.8 (13) -0.5 (60) 1.3 (4) 2.5 (1)
Adam Scott (Crowne Plaza) 2.4 (1) 0.4 (19) 1.7 (3) -0.3 (56) 0.7 (26)
Hideki Matsuyama (Memorial) 3.2 (1) 0.4 (23) 1.6 (5) 1.2 (5) 0.0 (46)
Ben Crane (FedEx St. Jude) 3.3 (1) -0.5 (65) 1.1 (14) 0.5 (19) 2.2 (1)
Kevin Streelman (Travelers) 3.4 (1) 1.0 (2) 0.2 (42) 0.3 (38) 1.9 (3)
Justin Rose (Quicken Loans) 2.7 (1) 0.5 (20) 1.8 (1) 0.2 (39) 0.2 (38)
Angel Cabrera (Greenbrier) 4.0 (1) 1.4 (2) 1.7 (3) -0.7 (71) 1.6 (6)
Brian Harman (John Deere) 4.0 (1) 0.7 (8) 2.8 (1) 0.6 (12) -0.2 (63)
Tim Clark (RBC Canadian) 4.1 (1) 0.2 (33) 1.4 (8) 0.8 (11) 1.6 (2)
Rory McIlroy (WGC-Bridgestone) 4.1 (1) 2.2 (1) 0.8 (17) -0.3 (46) 1.4 (7)
Rory McIlroy (PGA) 4.1 (1) 1.4 (2) 1.4 (5) 0.2 (44) 1.1 (12)
Camilo Villegas (Wyndham) 3.4 (1) 0.6 (14) 1.5 (4) 0.3 (25) 1.0 (16)
Hunter Mahan (The Barclays) 3.3 (1) 0.7 (14) 0.0 (47) 1.5 (1) 1.1 (15)
Chris Kirk (Deutsche Bank) 3.2 (1) 0.5 (16) 0.3 (35) 0.8 (9) 1.5 (5)
Billy Horschel (BMW) 3.3 (1) 0.7 (9) 0.1 (31) -0.5 (51) 3.0 (1)
Billy Horschel (TOUR Champ) 2.9 (1) 0.5 (7) 1.3 (3) 0.3 (14) 0.9 (6)

This post appeared originally on pgatour.com here

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