Strokes gained at the Arnold Palmer Invitational: Every wins with dramatic putt

Matt Every won the Arnold Palmer Invitational sinking a dramatic 19-foot birdie on the final hole. Henrik Stenson had a chance to force a playoff, but failed to convert his own 21-foot birdie putt on the last hole. Every’s best finish in the past six events was a tie for 49th, but he found his game this week and successfully defended his title at Bay Hill. Every said, “I feel like two months on the range it’s been awesome but … it’s been tough for me to take it to the course and this week kind of freed me up a little.  I played great all week and just kind of kept snowing-balling.”

Every won on the strength of his approach shots and his putting. He gained 3.8 strokes per round on the field, with approach shots contributing 1.8 strokes of the gain (rank 3) and putting contributing another 1.2 strokes (rank 8). Here’s a strokes gained breakdown of the top ten finishers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Strokes gained per round (ranks in parentheses)
Golfer Total Drive Appr Short Putt
Matt Every 3.8 (1) 0.2 (34) 1.8 (3) 0.6 (14) 1.2 (8)
Henrik Stenson 3.6 (2) 0.6 (15) 1.9 (2) 0.4 (18) 0.8 (17)
Matt Jones 3.3 (3) 0.6 (14) 0.4 (27) 1.1 (3) 1.3 (7)
Morgan Hoffmann 2.8 (4) 0.3 (29) 0.4 (28) 1.6 (1) 0.5 (27)
Ben Martin 2.6 (5) 0.7 (10) 0.1 (40) 1.1 (4) 0.7 (19)
Kevin Na 2.3 (T6) -0.3 (56) 0.6 (22) 1.3 (2) 0.7 (21)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 2.3 (T6) 0.3 (30) 0.2 (38) -1.3 (69) 3.2 (1)
Jason Kokrak 2.3 (T6) 0.5 (19) 1.7 (5) -0.2 (45) 0.4 (33)
Zach Johnson 2.1 (T9) 0.5 (16) 1.2 (9) -0.2 (41) 0.6 (25)
Louis Oosthuizen 2.1 (T9) -0.3 (54) 0.8 (17) 0.6 (13) 0.9 (13)
Top 10 average 2.7 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.0
Fraction of total 100% 11% 33% 18% 38%

Here’s a round-by-round strokes gained breakdown Every’s play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Strokes gained per round (ranks in parentheses) Rank
Matt Every Total Drive Appr Short Putt out of
2015 Season -0.3 (128) -0.8 (174) -0.1 (107) 0.0 (86) 0.5 (26) 176
Arnold Palmer Invitational 3.8 (1) 0.2 (34) 1.8 (3) 0.6 (14) 1.2 (8) 69
Round 1 3.4 (14) 1.4 (10) 2.0 (12) -0.2 (70) 0.3 (49) 120
Round 2 5.0 (8) -0.2 (77) 2.2 (8) 0.6 (31) 2.4 (9) 120
Round 3 1.5 (20) -1.0 (59) 1.6 (10) 1.3 (10) -0.5 (44) 70
Round 4 5.5 (T1) 0.7 (13) 1.6 (11) 0.5 (26) 2.7 (1) 69

Here’s a strokes gained breakdown of the final round for the top ten finishers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Strokes gained in the final round (ranks in parentheses)
Player Total Drive Appr Short Putt
Matt Every 5.5 (T1) 0.7 (13) 1.6 (11) 0.5 (26) 2.7 (1)
Henrik Stenson 1.5 (19) -0.1 (42) 3.2 (5) 1.3 (12) -2.8 (69)
Matt Jones 3.5 (7) 0.8 (9) 0.0 (34) 2.1 (2) 0.6 (25)
Morgan Hoffmann 0.5 (32) -1.2 (61) 0.5 (25) 0.6 (24) 0.6 (26)
Ben Martin 0.5 (31) 1.2 (5) -0.5 (44) 0.7 (21) -0.8 (51)
Kevin Na 2.5 (12) -0.1 (41) 3.2 (4) 1.1 (17) -1.7 (60)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 2.5 (13) 0.0 (39) 0.7 (21) -0.6 (49) 2.5 (4)
Jason Kokrak -0.5 (37) 0.6 (16) 1.5 (12) -1.8 (63) -0.8 (50)
Zach Johnson 5.5 (T1) 0.8 (10) 4.8 (1) 1.4 (11) -1.4 (57)
Louis Oosthuizen 2.5 (9) -0.2 (45) 1.2 (13) 0.3 (31) 1.2 (13)

Finally, World number one Rory McIlroy finished in a tie for eleventh place. In the first round, McIlory shot a 2-under-par 70, hitting 17 greens in regulation (rank 1) while taking 34 putts (rank T111 out of 118). It would be easy to blame his putting for not posting a lower score. The PGA TOUR average putts per round is 29, so it appears that McIlroy lost about five strokes with his putting. However, putts per round often paints an inaccurate picture of putting performance because it does not account for the length of putts a golfer faces. McIlroy’s putts started an average of more than four feet further from the hole than the field in the first round. His strokes gained putting in the first round was -0.6 strokes (rank 75). Strokes gained analysis shows that his putting was only slightly below the field average for the round. Here’s a strokes gained breakdown of McIlroy’s four rounds:

Strokes gained per round (ranks in parentheses) Rank
Rory McIlroy Total Drive Appr Short Putt out of
2015 Season 1.4 (12) 0.6 (7) 0.1 (81) 0.5 (16) 0.3 (62) 176
Arnold Palmer Invitational 1.8 (T11) 0.7 (9) 0.6 (23) 0.3 (24) 0.2 (38) 69
Round 1 1.4 (32) 1.3 (11) 1.2 (26) -0.5 (81) -0.6 (75) 120
Round 2 5.0 (7) 0.1 (59) 1.1 (31) 0.5 (39) 3.3 (5) 120
Round 3 -0.5 (37) 0.7 (16) -1.2 (54) 1.6 (6) -1.7 (61) 70
Round 4 1.5 (24) 0.8 (11) 1.1 (15) -0.3 (43) -0.1 (40) 69

This post appeared originally on pgatour.com here


A very brief explanation of strokes gained:
Strokes gained is a measure of the quality of a golf shot. A shot with positive strokes gained indicates a better-than-average shot for a PGA TOUR pro. For example, suppose on a difficult par-4 that the PGA TOUR average score is 4.2. An average drive for a PGA TOUR player would reduce the average strokes to hole out by one, from 4.2 to 3.2. If a player hit a long drive into the fairway where the PGA TOUR average strokes to hole out is 2.9, then the shot gained 0.3 strokes compared to the PGA TOUR average. If a player hit a short drive into the rough where the PGA TOUR average strokes to hole out is 3.4, then the shot lost 0.2 strokes compared to the PGA TOUR average. Strokes gained from all shots are accumulated and grouped into convenient categories to measure the performance of players in a round, tournament, or season. For example, the gain from all tee shots on par-4 and par-5 holes is strokes gained driving measure. The gain from all shots starting outside 100 yards from the hole, excluding tee shots on par-4 and par-5 holes, is strokes gained from approach shots.

 

 

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