In a recent tweet, it was pointed out that Rory McIlroy is ranked 3 in three-putt avoidance, yet he’s ranked outside the top 100 in strokes gained putting. How can that be?

To further add to the mystery, he’s ranked 58 in one-putts, which means he one-putts more often than the tour average. Fewer three putts and more one putts, so how can he lose strokes to the field with his putting?

First, the average tour golfer three putts about 0.55 times per round, or about once every other round. McIlroy three putts about 0.3 times per round, or about half as often. This explains why he’s ranked third in three-putt avoidance, but the number of putts he saves per round is about a quarter of a stroke.

Second, he one putts more often because he starts closer to the hole, not because he’s a better putter from a given distance. This season McIlroy’s putts started an average of 15.7 feet from the hole, compared to the tour average of 17 feet. That’s a significant difference. According to pgatour.com, McIlroy is ranked 181 in putts from 5 to 15 feet. Once you control for the initial putt distance, his advantage in one putts vanishes.

McIlroy sinks more putts because he starts closer to the hole. He three putts less often because he is a good lag putter. When I break down his strokes gained putting into short (0-6 feet), medium (7-21 feet) and long (22 feet and over), you can see the solution to the mystery:

What McIlroy gains in long-range putts, he loses in short- and medium-length putts. Strokes gained putting solves the mystery by taking into account where each putt starts and where each putt ends. Counting one putts and counting three putts can be misleading.

Thanks to the PGA Tour, CDW and the ShotLink Intelligence program for access to the ShotLink data used in this analysis.