The FedExCup watch will begin in earnest after the results of the PGA Championship are in, but here’s an early look at players’ chances of making the playoffs.

The top 125 players in FedExCup points after the conclusion of Wyndham Championship make the playoffs. Sang-Moon Bae is currently ranked 125 in FedExCup standings with 410 points but he has less than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. Why? Because the FedExCup points awarded at this week’s PGA Championship and next week’s Wyndham Championship will push the cutoff beyond 410 points.

How far beyond? The PGA TOUR asked me to answer that question. With the help of summer intern Paul Lindseth, we simulated thousands of possible outcomes of the next two tournaments to figure out which cutoffs are the most likely and which are the least likely to happen. Monte Carlo simulation was developed at the dawn of the computer age and it uses the computer equivalent of a roulette wheel tool to generate random possible future outcomes. The key is to develop a simulation model that accurately reflects the scores that golfers could shoot in these tournaments.

The simulation results in the table below show that the most likely FedExCup point value for position 125 after the Wyndham Championship is 437 points. There is a 5 percent chance that the cutoff will be 426 points or lower. There is a 95 percent chance that the cutoff will be 448 points or lower.   If Sang-Moon Bae does not play in the Wyndham, he’ll finish the season with 410 points and have almost no chance of making the playoffs.

Andres Romero currently occupies position 116 with 448 points. Even if he receives zero additional FedExCup points, he has a 95 percent of making the playoffs.

Nicholas Thompson currently occupies position 121 with 436 points. If he receives zero additional FedExCup points, he has a 50 percent of making the playoffs, so he’s clearly “on the bubble.”

J.J. Henry currently occupies position 130 with 388 points. In order to have a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs, he’d need to earn 49 points at the Wyndham Championship, which corresponds to a finish of 22nd or better (since he’s not playing in the PGA Championship this week).

James Driscoll currently occupies position 150 with 311 points. In order to have a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs, he’d need to earn 126 points at the Wyndham Championship, which corresponds to a finish of fourth or better (since he’s not playing in the PGA Championship this week).

Players currently ranked 116 or better are nearly a “lock” for qualifying for the playoffs. Players currently ranked between 117 and 121 have a better than 50 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. Players currently ranked between 122 and 150 can make the playoffs with a good (to great) finish in one of the next two tournaments. Of course, a win carries 500 points at the Wyndham Championship and would get that player into the playoffs for sure.

Here’s a list of the “bubble boys.” The complete list is here

This post appeared originally on pgatour.com here